Saturday, April 24, 2010

Another prop bet

From coinflip.com
“Last year Phil Ivey beefed up his motivation for the WSOP by numerous side bets, and it turns out this year is no exception. During the WPT Championship Daniel Negreanu revealed some details about a huge bracelet bet between Ivey and Howard Lederer.

The two Full Tilt Poker owners have placed a 1:1 bet on whether Ivey can win at least two WSOP bracelets in total by the end of 2011. Stake: 5 million dollars.

ivey will probably play around 80 events this and next year which would mean he thinks his chances of winning an average WSOP event are better than 40:1. Apparently Lederer does not think so, or he thinks that the publicity created by the most popular player on FTP is worth the risk. And the railbirds definitely won't mind seeing a very motivated best-player-in-the-world at the WSOP.

Last year Ivey won two bracelets within a week, and at the WSOP 2002 he took down three events. All in all he has seven bracelets.”

These guys have a severe case of TMM. TMM stands for too much money. They are both owners of FullTiltPoker, which makes a dumbass-amount of money. One player sued FullTiltPoker because she felt she was promised 2% of the company, she sued for $40 million, and that was a couple years ago. So, yeah, stage 3 TMM.
However, I’d say he’s an underdog. Everyone agrees that he is the best in the world, however, there’s just too much luck in poker. If I had to estimate, even against an average player, in a heads up situation, Ivey would only win 65% of the time, 70% is pushing it. Of course it depends on the game, but even Russell can beat Ivey 30-35% of the time if he played aggressively. (no knock on Russ) And that’s assuming he even makes it to heads up, which takes a crazy amount of luck. Nonetheless, it’s a fun bet, and should be interesting to watch.

On a podcast that I listen to, they were asking the question, Is Tiger Woods the Phil Ivey of poker? Or is Phil Ivey the Tiger Woods of golf? Good question. Btw, he recently got a divorce and his house is for sale for a mere 2 mil.

2 comments:

  1. Tiger woods is not comparable to phil. since of all the variance of poker, he cannot dominate as much as tiger does. everyone expects tiger to win every tourney. everyone thinks that phil has a good chance, but would not be surprised when he doesnt win. i would put more money on tiger than on phil, evident that he is more dominant.

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  2. that's true, can't compare golfers to poker players, but i think they were comparing the 'superstar status'. phil ivey is a superstar, no doubt about it.

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