tackling fuel

maybe, possibly, doubt it, probably

what do those words all mean?
IF i have kids one day, they are not going to be using those words, but instead, they are going to use gambling odds (and over/unders) to describe situations.

here's an example. i ask my son one day "What grade are you going to get in math class?"
instead of him answering "Probably an A or B", he will instead answer "it's -120 that i get an A"

no maybe or probably, all numbers
=======
i can't wait. hypothetical conversation between me and my 11 year old son.

me: so what are the odds you get an A in history?
son: umm, to be honest, it's like +180.
me: whoa whoa whoa, but it was only +120 just last week, what happened?
son: umm, yeaaa, well we just had a big test, and it was dumbass hard.
me: hey, watch your mouth! how can it go from +120 to +180 in one week!? that's a big move
son: i hate the teacher. she hates me. it's like -250 that she's racist.
me: oh please. you better get it back down to +120 before spring break.

OR how about====
me: we're going to grandma and grandpa's house, get ready. what is the over/under on how many times  Grandpa C. says "you're getting so tall"?
son: oh man, Grandpa C is so funny, i'm setting the line at 4.5.
me: hmm, that's too high right?
son: nah, that's about right. last time he said it twice. but the time before that, it had to be 8 or 9 times.

OR how about i just have a whiteboard in my family room with FUTURES lines that i update once a week or so====
son: hey dad, i saw that the odds "for a summer vacation to disneyworld" dropped from EvenMoney to +160. is that a mistake?
me: no, no that's not a mistake. money has been a little tight around here.
son: what the fudge happened?
me: ask your uncle scott, he said the warriors were a lock to beat the spurs on monday. then he convinced me to dump our account on the the Rockets to beat the Lakers. boom, vacation now +160.

Parent prank

I'm sure most of you have heard of the prank my comedian nathan fielder.

"Comedian Nathan Fielder came up with a wonderful idea yesterday. He instructed his Twitter followers to text "got 2 grams for $20" to their parents, immediately follow up with "Sorry ignore that txt. Not for you," and then tweet a screenshot of the ensuing conversation. The results were, as you might imagine, hilarious."
===
these links are pretty funny
http://deadspin.com/ingenious-prank-sends-parents-into-weed-panic-480940968

http://www.collegehumor.com/pictures/gallery/6886310/drug-texting-your-mom
===
but any way, on friday after i had heard about the prank, something brilliant happened. something amazing. i got a text from one of my cousins. she said "got 2 grams for $20" followed with "sorry ignore that txt. not for you"

brilliant. i could have been boring and said "loll i know about that prank already, but nice try" but no, i insta texted back "hahahha u dont have to worry, i got some too, i just met up with my guy, bought a grippppp"      (i'm completely joking obviously)
-brilliant, i think i scared the crap out of her. i wish i could have seen her reaction when she saw my text. she finally responds "oh tight, wanna share some with your fave cuz?"  (lolll so funny, i know she just panicked, and tried to play it off, she's a good girl for sure)
-so i respond "yeah you free tonight?" (and she never responded. i must have scared the crap out of her lolllllll)
====
when i first heard about the prank, i almost did it to my mom. but
1. i don't think she would understand
2. if she did understand, i think she would get really upset/scared.
3. i remember in middle school. i had this really cool math teacher. it was toward the end of the year, and we were going on a field trip. i asked the teacher to call my mom at work and tell her that i could no longer go on the field trip because i got in trouble. prank! my mom didn't find it funny. my mom got really upset and she told me to get on the phone. and she said something like "i don't find that funny grant. i'm busy at work and i don't have time for this. it's not funny grant. you think that's funny grant? (no mom) you think i have time for this? i don't have time for this. it's not funny grant. i got things to do. don't waste my time. i don't think its funny grant (ok mom)...

i'm blue, cousin white

do u like mae

i'm being serious

i think i have this weird talent. i think i'm really good at face recognition. i'm serious. i think i have a better than average ability to recognize faces. i'm not exactly sure why. i feel like i'm more likely to recognize famous people and athletes than the average person. and if i'm walking by someone, i feel like i recognize the person BEFORE they recognize me. and i think i'm really good at watching movies and tv shows, and recognize what other shows/movies the actor/actress was in.

like, i was watching Homeland. and you know the black guy who works for the Government. you know the big dude, who dies at the end of season 2. oops spoiler. that was the big mean guy from Blood Diamond. see it? see it? the big mean scary man from blood diamond, who gets his eye blown away (and yells GIVE ME THA DIAMOND!), he is the black guy in homeland. (i just googled it, his name is david harewood)

or like, i've gone to NBA summer league the past 2 years. and i feel like I"m the person who recognizes athletes when they are in street clothes. like oh there's jrue holiday, oh there's thomas robinson, in the sharks hat

i was eating lunch with jon a couple months ago, and this guy walks in, i swear! he looked like jay cutler's 2nd or 3rd cousin. i tell jon "dude, that guys looks like jay cutler's 2nd or 3rd cousin" jon looks, pauses, and says "that's not jay cutler"              ummmm, you're right jon

i feel like i always tell people "dude, that guy right there, doesn't he look like he could be so-and-so's cousin?" and i'm right!

am i crazy? maybe? just a little? oh ok

fake

i've been trading for 2 and a half years now, and today's event was probably the most memorable

at 10:07am our time, the AP tweeted "Breaking: Two Explosions in the White House and Barack Obama is injured"

at the office, we have a couple different "news" services. one is in the form of a chatroom, and the other is audible and part of our trading platform. we tend to hear any news a couple minutes/seconds before CNN or twitter. at 10:07 we heard from our audible news service "...breaking, AP reporting two explosions at the white house and barack obama is said to be injured..."

 ohhhhhh shit.

the market tanks!, the DOW drops 100 points in the matter of seconds. i'm looking in my new chatroom, and see ppl posting about the explosions. i couldn't believe it, for the next 60 seconds. i must have said "oh shit" and "oh my god" a combined 16 times. the market is just tanking, and people are backing away from all bids and offers. it was crazy. i spent the first 10 seconds cancelling every single bid and offer i had on my screen. luckily, when the market tanked, i didn't get hurt, i didn't get any fills/transactions. then we hear "AP is reporting a possible twitter hack..." and then its confirmed, the AP's twitter (which has 2 million followers) has been hacked, and it was all false. 

the market recovers, and that was that. it was crazy, for those 90 seconds or so, my heart was racing, sooo many different thoughts running thru my head. just think about it, for 90 seconds. NINETY SECONDS, that's a long time if you think about it. for 90 seconds, i was under the impression that there were 2 explosions in the white house, and our President was injured. i was almost in shock, are we at war? how the hell do you get explosives in the white house? is our President dead? how is this possible? oh my god

if you can, go on your iphone. and check today's move in the dow jones or S&P 500. look at that big ass dip in the middle of the day. no seriously, look at some stock charts on your iphone. if you look at the charts, that is fear. why did the market crash? several reasons, and FEAR is one of t hem

3

after my trip to New York, i realized that i drive 70 MPH, while New Yorkers in the finance industry all drive 90+MPH. i kind of move and talk at a slow relaxed pace. but everyone else..they drive 90 PLUS

people are so intense over there, they speak so quickly. everyone just loves to talk. (like, where do the introverts go? do they have to leave NY?) they have tons of stories that they just roll off. boom boom boom. sometimes it was hard to get a word in. when i read DON'T SWEAT THE SMALL STUFF, i remember a section saying something like "in order to reduce stress, you shouldn't cut people off. let them finish what they are saying. then speak". i try to always let people finish, not cutting them off. but in NY, if you want to speak, you need to cut people off. i remember this one time specifically, it was out during 'social drinks', it was me and 3 other people in a conversation. and it was boom boom boom conversation. person 1 would tell a story, person 2 would have a follow up story starting with "oh yeah, my buddy's ex girlfrend...", then person 3 would ask a quick question, then person 2 would answer with a short story, then person 1 would add his two-cents. JUST BOOM BOOM BOOM. no breaks, at all. i could not get a single word in without cutting someone off. i was just nodding my head off. when i finally did want to say something, i had to slightly start to raise my hand to get attention. i drive 70mph, slow down please

most of the speakers were older, and have families. they were all very sharp and seemed successful. i was definitely out of my league
*tangent
i once saw someone post a meme on instagram that said "everyone is talking about their boyfriends and girlfriends, and i'm over here like 'i like naps'". when we were at some networking event, people were talking about their careers and families. and i just thought "everyone is talking about careers and children, and i'm over like worldstar and deadspin". or "everyone is talking about New york city, boston, Chicago and i'm over here like it's Asparagus Season!"

part 2

i met a guy named Jeff when i was there. he was one of the guys that organized the entire conference. he was very interesting. sooo charismatic. if you asked me: grant, in the past 4 years of your life, who are the top 3 most charismatic people you've met?
-he would be 1 or 2

really charismatic people and really successful people interest me. i just don't understand how they do it. jeff had the ability to talk to every person in the room about anything and everything. he had this ability to carry a conversation, and lead it when he needed to, but also just listen when it was necessary. not only that, he had the ability to make everyone laugh, and make everyone feel important. i don't know how to explain it, but he knew how to keep everyone interested and involved in group conversations. like, when there is a group of 3-5 people, sometimes 2 people end up talking between themselves. but he had this way to keep everyone in a conversation. that might not make sense
-he watched part of our first presentation on friday. i did so-so, nothing special, and that is an honest assessment. but after, he told me that i did a great job, which i knew was a bit of a stretch. but he said it in a way that you just sorta believed him, it seemed very genuine. almost like he was rooting for you in a way. like, there's some people (i'm probably guilty) where if they say "you did great!", you'd probably just reply "riiiiight, i know i did shitty". but not the case with jeff

some people, sooo interesting

slow down. part 1

this is going to be a 10-part series about what i learned during my weekend in New York.

i learned a lot, about everything.

i'm going to go bullet point style, since all my thoughts are jumbled.

-Quinnipiac is a private college in New York. each year they hold a conference about trading/investing. about 1,000 students from all over the country go to learn more about the financal industry. it's a 3 day event. my co-worker has been a speaker for the last 5-6 years and he said they were looking for another speaker. so he asked me. and naturally, i instantly declined. but with a little encouragement, he convinced me to go. basically, i had to man up

-we would be flying out thursday. and we were scheduled for 2 one-hour presentations on friday, and 2 one-hour presentations on saturday. i realllllllly didn't want go. the week leading up to NY, all i could think about was how good it would feel when i was on the plane ride back to SF (knowing that i'd be doneeeee). so our flight was delayed 3 hours obv, and we didn't get into NY until 3am. good start.

-i was looking at the itinereareary for the conference. and on friday and saturday, it was basically full of stuff like: continental breakfast for speakers ("great for meeting other speakers"), there were 3-4 social networking breaks. then we had our 2 one-hour presentations. then there was a dinner with other speakers. then there were social drinks at night. SOCIAL OVERLOAD. friday and saturday was just jaaaaam packed with social crap, i mean social events. i love social events. i'm so social, yay! extroverts represent!       lol?

-i almost forgot, since our flight got delayed 3 hours, we ate dinner at the airport. and joe montana was at the same restaurant drinking at the bar with a couple other ppl. i didn't go stalker crazy kid on him, mostly because i was just super focused/nervous about the trip

more to come...like tmro

just some random notes so i don't forget anything: 65mph compared to 90mph. meme asparagus, wshh. list of charasmatic ppl, central park, time square being rushed. clinton j black. feeling 2 times, econ 130. nets. group of 4, boom boom. halal. prop trading, andrew christine. sharp.

bet raise fold

ohhhh shit.

it's almost embarrassing what i would pay/do/give up for online poker to come back. pleaseee...one time. I'm thirsty

don't bluff

full disclosure. i don't claim to know anything about parenting

but this is just an observation. i'm sitting on the bus... with a mom and her son. the kid is probably  5-7 years old. he was playing some type of video game. and the mom walks toward the exit and says "we gotta go, this is our stop". the kid completely ignores the mom. she asks him to come one more time and he ignores. so she's near the exit and he is in a seat probably 10 feet away. the bus is slowing down and she says "you better come right now! or i'm going to leave you on this bus...(he ignores)...ok! i'm going. i'm getting off the bus! byeee" the mom didn't get off, she finallyyy realized that the kid is not going to move. so she walks to the kid and grabs his arm and they run off the bus together. 

what's the takeaway? 

don't bluff your kids. i mean, this kid obviously knew his mom was "all talk" and that there was a 0% chance that she gets off the bus without him. i mean, once the kid knows that you're full of shit, you lose all of your credibility. right? (i don't claim to know, i'm just asking). it's like in poker right, basically, the mom was bluffing. she threatened the kid (hoping that he would "fold" and listen to her). but the kid was a stud and called her bluff. daring her to DO IT (get off the bus). but she didn't.

i just hope, that if i become a parent one day. that i'll stick to my word. that i don't try and bluff my kids. if you say something, be able to back it up. if you say "if you don't get off the bus with me right now, i'm going to take away the video game for 2 days", then you better stick to your word. OR ELSE YOU KID IS GOING TO KNOW YOU'RE FULL OF SHIT and walk all over you

 lollll just watch. if i have a son, when he gets home from school, he's going to be like "dad, the new madden game comes out tmro, i need it" and i just reply "yeah yeah, no worries, i'll amazon-prime it right now"

LUCK VS SKILL

i've realized i enjoy writing more than speaking, therefore i should write more. april is all about random thoughts and opinions that might only be interesting to me. i'm sorry. actually, i'm not sorry.

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there are so many similarities in poker and trading.
off the top of my head.
1) poker and trading are both  zero-sum games.
poker is a zero-sum game, meaning when someone wins $, that money is coming from another player in the game. The amount of money won and lost is balanced by the players at the table. so if i play poker and win $100, that means the 100 dollars that i won came from a losing player in the game. trading is also a zero-sum game in my opinion. (i've heard people argue that trading/the stock market is not a zero-sum game. technically it might not be, but it works for the example). say i make $1,000 trading, that means someone lost $1,000. traders, (just like poker players), are hunters. in order to eat, they have to kill. it sounds cutthroat, and it is. that's the challenge in poker/trading, you need to stay sharp and one step ahead of the competition, or you will get eaten. the game is always changing, it's very dynamic, and the edge you have today, might not be there tomorrow

2) poker and trading have a combination of luck and skill. 
chess is 100% skill, there is no luck in chess. that's why chess gets boring after a while. if you're better than someone, you're going to beat them pretty close to 100% of the time. slot machines are 100% luck, there is no skill in slot machines. 
-but poker is one of the few games where there is both luck and skill. just like trading/the stock market. A random person can buy apple stock at $100 and watch the stock go up to $250, and make some serious $$$. the same way a bad player could play poker against phil ivey and win sometimes. translation= some people just get lucky. plain and simple
-now it goes the other way too. a very good poker player can play against a table full of beginners and still lose money. why? because in a small sample size, luck can play a bigger role than skill. however, if you have EDGE, you will make money in poker/trading because over the long run, SKILL owns LUCK

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