savage

the last time i was at the optometrist. we made small talk, he asked me what i did . i said options trader. and then he started telling me about which stocks he liked and didn't like. about how he made money on Company X back in the late 1990s...blah blah. he then said "yeah, i'd say i'm about even". mmmhmm. i said "oh that's good". but in my head i'm calling BULLLLL SHIT (ohhhh man, bull shit was the best game ever in high school. ok, 2nd best game behind "13" "or big 2?" "or pasoyyyyy dos?")

i'd say over 90% of people that say "i'm about even" are actually  losers ($$). people like to underestimate losses and overestimate wins. when you're in vegas, how many times do gamblers tell other people "i'm about even". i mean,  maybeeeee my optometrist really IS "about even" in the stock market. i'd bet the no, but maybeee

 most online poker players lose. that is a fact. 100% fact. if you asked me "grant, in your opinion, of all the players in the world who has ever played 1 hand of online poker for real money, what percentage of those players are losers?"

==i'd say 90% are losers

just a guess, but i'm pretty sure it's that lopsided. i mean, it makes sense. a beginning player cannot expect to beat someone at a skill game against a player that plays as a profession. 

where was i going with that? i dont know

but any way. this is all opinion, NOT based on fact. but REGARDING THE stock market, i think that most people would think that "about half of the people make money in the stock market, and half the people int he stock market lose money". yea? no? in my opinion, i think it's not even close. just a random guess. i'd say of all people that have ever participated in the stock market. i'd say 15% of them have made money, and 85% have lost money. the stock exchanges always win (FEES!). if you buy a stock for $5 and you sell it for $5. you do not break even (FEES!)

ok, here's my bull shit theory. i think that 85% of people have lost money in the stock market. but i feel those people in the 85%...they don't like to talk about losing money. they'll tell people "i'm about even" or "i'm slightly up" or whatever whatever. which is fine, i get it. but i feel that this sort of white lie makes people believe that the stock market isn't as dangerous as it really is. it really is dangerous. if you have an extra $10,000 and you want to buy stocks, but only think of it as a hobby. you're most likely going to lose. it's like poker. a beginner cannot expect to make money against people that do it as a profession (OVER THE LONG RUN). 

for all intesive purposes (lol i mean intents and purposes), the stock market is a zero-sum game. so in order for you to make money, that means someone has to lose the same amount of money. so basically you have to beat professionals in a game of skill, aaaand you have to pay the stock exchange fees for trading. goodluck

and if you hear stories that people made tens of thousands of dollars on Apple, or Google. yeah sure. that happens. but those are the outliers. look at other companies

this could all be complete BS, i dont know. i sound really negative, i dont like it. but maybe it's true?    hmm. here's what i think i want to say. if my friend came up to me and asked me if he should play poker (if he's a beginner), blackjack, or play the stock market.  i would tell him. don't play poker because you're probably going to lose, don't play blackjack because you're probably going to lose. and don't play the stock market because you're probably going to lose. bet on sports!

edc

i disagree with bill simmons regarding only 1 thing. the FAST AND FURIOUS movie series

he loves them and i don't understand them. 

i've watched the last two movies and have been disappointed each time. i knowww that the movies are super cheesy and you can't take them thaaat seriously. i get it, but it's not enough. i have a conspiracy theory that EVERYONE in the world knows the movie is horrible, but the entire world is playing a prank on ME. the movies are bad!

whatever whatever. i didn't like the last FAST FIVE movie, however. the bill simmons and adam carolla podcast is hilarious. i've already listented to it twice. and i know i'll watch it one more time nbd. 

lebron over kobe

i wouldn't call myself a lebron fan at all. but during the playoffs, i reallllly wanted him to win the title. and during the finals, i decided that i want him to win the next 6 titles.

i obviously want the warriors to win a championship, that would be unreal. (who would have thought. maybe that russell Warriors-win-a-title-in-the next 8 years bet comes into play?) but if the warriors don't win for the next 6 years, i want lebron to win all of the titles (i think i'm the minority, but i'm not sure). i really do, and i think i know why

1. lebron saved our sportsbook account. i think we finally figured it out. all you do is  bet lebron to win a playoff series. bet it, cash it.

2. i think i heard this on a podcast.  WE like to see really amazing things, unbelievable things. you want to be able to tell your kids that you saw Lebron James in his prime, a once in a generation player, maybe the greatest of all time?  you want to tell your kids that you saw lebron win 6 championships in 8 years. you want to tell your kids that the 2013 nba finals was amazeballs. you want to tell them about ray allen's game 6 game-tying shot which forced overtime, and eventually to a game7. (if my son and i talk about the 2013 nba finals and he asks me "what was the spread for game 7?"----i might cry. happy tears)

3. like i said, i don't pretend to be a super lebron fan/groupie/defender. buuuut, i just find it annoying when people hate on lebron.  i love lebron, he's amazing. here's what i really think......................

Let's say there are 2 types of nba fans. 2 types, serious fans and casual fans. i consider a serious fan as someone who plays fantasy basketball (for $), who considered game6 and 7 of the nbafinals as must-SEE, who gets excited for things like the Nbadraft or the Trade Deadline. you know the type...every other nbafan is casual.

I think CASUAL fans love kobe. they love him because they watch EsPN, and they see his game-winning shots, they see that he has been a Laker his whole career and SEEMS loyal, they like his shoes/commercials, they hear ESPN call him a fierce competitor. on the flip side, i think casual fans hate lebron because they hear all the stories about how he isn't "clutch" or "afraid" of the big game. they hear espn people say how classless "the decision" was. they hear stories about him being a "traitor". they don't like that he joined D-wade and bosh

i feel like SERIOUS fans understand how crazy good Lebron is, not just good, amazinggg. i feel like they understand that kobe is a bit overrated (still great, but overrated)
i feel like casual fans love kobe and hate on lebron. therefore, i feel like mosttt casual fans were rooting for the spurs, and mostttt seroius fans were rooting for miami.

so in the playoffs and in the next several  years, i hope lebron wins everythingggg

sources say

i hate how interesting this is to me. honestly

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THE DECISION

are people realllllllly upset about lebron's "The Decision" back in 2010?

i loved everything about it. so much hype, so many rumors, so much at stake, not to mention it was a level-10 sweat for all NBA fans. so much history. i think all big free agents should have 30minute ESPN specials that reveal their decision. i'd watch every single one

BUT SERIously, are people really upset with how lebron handled it? i feel like a couple people on ESPN said it classless and disrespectful to cleveland, and everyone just sorta jumped on board. blah blah blah . (and to be fair, maybe it was a little classless, but it was entertaining as shit)

 if you like the NBA, then "the decision" was MUST-SEE tv. i still remember that day specifically. i was in vegas in the middle of my 30day vegas adventure, and i stopped playing poker early that day so i could watch from my  hotel room.

i love watching big hyped up sporting events, where it's like "ohhhh shit..."
super bowls, Warriors in the playoffs, Giants in the world series, The Decision, NBA drafts, betting big on -400 favorites when you know it's stupid but whatever



i mean, i've probably watch this clip probably 5 times since 2010
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with the Jay-Z/ Justin timberlake Legends of Summer tour coming up...the stubhub ticket prices are slowlyyyy coming down.

AAAAND they're going to come down every day until the concert. i say this with 99% confidence. if you're going to buy, WAIT!!!
if you're going to sell, HURRY!!!

doc rivers/bill simmons

I'm one of bill simmons top 100 fans in the world. So when the bill simmons/doc rivers beef started, a couple things happened.
1. i got really excited.
2. i insta-defended bill simmons
3. i am now a huuuuuge Clipper hater, and a huuuuge austin rivers hater.
4. i cannot wait for the next simmons column or BS report where he addresses this. like, i cannot wait

here are the deadspin links describing the beef.
http://deadspin.com/rivers-i-would-like-to-call-simmons-an-idiot-simm-605489630
http://deadspin.com/the-bill-simmons-doc-rivers-beef-continues-to-heat-up-613740934

i was talking to my co-worker about the situation, he doesn't like bill for some reason. basically, i said i liked how bill said that Doc quit on the celtics, because that's what a lot of people are thinking, and it's more entertaining for an analyst or writer to stand up and say it. and my co-worker's response is that: bill doesn't know all the facts, he can't say that he quit because there might be other variables...
I get that, no one will ever know for sure all the backroom info. but i like bill because he says interesting things, he says the things that some people are afraid to say. i mean, it's easy to say EASY things. most analysts on tv might say "ohh, doc's time is up as celtics coach and he will get a fresh new start, his time in boston was great and he will be remembered as one of the best..."   boring uninteresting shit. i can say that ^^
but no, it looks like doc quit on the team, as soon as the team broke down, he wanted out.

it's easy to hire a basketball analyst to say the EASY things and kiss everyone's ass like jalen rose does. but it's hard to call people out. but if its the truth, then its the truth.
=======
i love this beef. i hope it escalates. i hope it gets more attention and more heated. this way. i can be a huuuuuuuuuuuuuge clipper hater.


****just listened to the latest BS report that was released today. bill said he talked to doc for 45 minutes about the beef. and it's over. damn