Thursday, February 3, 2011

Christmas, Lloyd Christmas

It’s Super Bowl prop time. And people might not know, and I don’t mean to brag, but I’m sort of an expert in the field. These are all 100% real bets that you can find through online sportsbooks.

-How long will it take Christina Aguilera to sing the National Anthem? Over/under: 1 minute 56 seconds

Take the over, I’ve studied the tape (youtube vids over her last two national anthem) and I see her around the 2 min+ range. So, with a 4 second cushion, I feel comfortable with the over.

-Will Fergie be dressed as a Dallas Cowboys Cheerleader at any point during the Halftime show?

Yes = 17% ($100 wins $500)

This is a trap, you’re thinking “all I have to do is bet 100, to win 500?” It sounds enticing, but don’t fall for it.

-How many times shown during the broadcast?

Jerry Jones: over/under 2.5 times

Under. This is another typical trap. They (sportsbooks) want you to think that it’s all about the location of the Super Bowl and they are going to talk about the man behind the massive Dallas Cowboy Stadium. However, they are probably going to show him once, for an extended period of time, and explain everything there is to explain. And that should be it. However, if the game is close and comes down to the final drive or so, they might show Jerry Jones again to see his reaction. Therefore, they will show Jerry Jones twice max!

-How many times mentioned?

Brett Favre: over/under 2.5 times

America loves Brett Favre for whatever reason. The public is going to bet the over, so I’m taking the under. This is a tough one though, 0.5 unit play here.

-First End Zone Celebration?

Ball Spike: +$300

Championship Belt +$300

Lambeau Leap +$300

Dunk over cross bar: +$400

Quiets the Crowd +$600

Bicep flex +$700

Backflip: +$800

Snow Angel: +$1100

Signs football with Sharpie: +1700

These sort of bets are interesting. Always remember, we’re thinking long run here, not the short term. And the key here is, bad bets win sometimes, and good bets lose sometimes. Therefore, I’m going with the bicep flex +700 (bet 100, to win 700). And if we don’t cash this bet, it doesn’t mean it was a bad bet, we DO NOT have to win this over 50% of the time like we do with our over/under bets. I’m also going 0.5 unit play with the snow angel (that’s all Aaron Rodgers there, college tapes)

-What color will the Gatorade be that is dumped on the Head Coach of the Winning Super Bowl Team?

($100 wins . . . )

Yellow: +$150

Clear: +$300

Orange: +$300

Red: +$400

Lime Green: +$500

Blue: +$1500

The correct bet is lime green, no explanation needed

Enjoy, and good luck.

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