Monday, August 18, 2014

i've never played daily fantasy sports, but i like the idea of it. and i can see why it's so popular. 

1. it's bull shit that fantasy sports is considered a "skill game" and poker is not. 
2. i had a close friend play daily fantasy sports and tell me about it. i don't know much, but in my opinion....there's no edge unless you have some computer/algorithmic model to help. if you're a casual fan that watches a few televised games per week, there's just not enough edge. and even if you do have a slight edge against your opponents, it's not enough to overcome the entry fee
3. first off, i think 80% of fantasy sports participants think they are better then the average fantasy sports player. everyone thinks they are sharp. i think i'm sharp, and i'm probably just average.
4. but yeah, there's no edge in fantasy sports for 95% of people playing on these sites because you can't make mistakes in fantasy sports. in poker, if you're a bad player, you can make lots and lots of mistakes. if you watch a good player and a bad player for one hour each, you can SEE the mistakes the bad player makes. but in fantasy sports, it's hard to make biggg mistakes. most decisions are only slightlyyyyyy better then other decisions (the edges are so small).  for example, if my mom faced off against the best daily fantasy player in the world, she might win 40% of the time....but if mom faced off against the best poker player in the world, she might win only 2% of the time. it's too hard to mess up in daily fantasy sports
5. i think stories like this mail guy are slightly bogus. it's in Fanduel's best interest to make people think that "hey, even this mailman can make money, you can do it too try it today!!!" i get it, they have to market it that way. fanduel needs people to think that average sports fans can win (even though only < 1% are actually making money) if this mailman was seriously making decent money, would he really not quit his day job? 
6. i know nothing, but i think that there IS money to be made in daily fantasy sports, but you need to have some computer model that no one else has. that's your EDGE. i think less then 2% of players have a model this good. the rest of the 98% are passing money back and forth. you might win 54% of your head-to-head matches, but that's not going to cut it. the entry fees will slowly eat you alive (just like Fanduel wants it).
7. i'm not hating though, i like the idea. i just don't think an average to slightly above average fantasy player can make any money playing it. if you think of it as entertainment, then go ahead, play. but if you think you're sharp and can beat it, goooood luck

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