savage

the last time i was at the optometrist. we made small talk, he asked me what i did . i said options trader. and then he started telling me about which stocks he liked and didn't like. about how he made money on Company X back in the late 1990s...blah blah. he then said "yeah, i'd say i'm about even". mmmhmm. i said "oh that's good". but in my head i'm calling BULLLLL SHIT (ohhhh man, bull shit was the best game ever in high school. ok, 2nd best game behind "13" "or big 2?" "or pasoyyyyy dos?")

i'd say over 90% of people that say "i'm about even" are actually  losers ($$). people like to underestimate losses and overestimate wins. when you're in vegas, how many times do gamblers tell other people "i'm about even". i mean,  maybeeeee my optometrist really IS "about even" in the stock market. i'd bet the no, but maybeee

 most online poker players lose. that is a fact. 100% fact. if you asked me "grant, in your opinion, of all the players in the world who has ever played 1 hand of online poker for real money, what percentage of those players are losers?"

==i'd say 90% are losers

just a guess, but i'm pretty sure it's that lopsided. i mean, it makes sense. a beginning player cannot expect to beat someone at a skill game against a player that plays as a profession. 

where was i going with that? i dont know

but any way. this is all opinion, NOT based on fact. but REGARDING THE stock market, i think that most people would think that "about half of the people make money in the stock market, and half the people int he stock market lose money". yea? no? in my opinion, i think it's not even close. just a random guess. i'd say of all people that have ever participated in the stock market. i'd say 15% of them have made money, and 85% have lost money. the stock exchanges always win (FEES!). if you buy a stock for $5 and you sell it for $5. you do not break even (FEES!)

ok, here's my bull shit theory. i think that 85% of people have lost money in the stock market. but i feel those people in the 85%...they don't like to talk about losing money. they'll tell people "i'm about even" or "i'm slightly up" or whatever whatever. which is fine, i get it. but i feel that this sort of white lie makes people believe that the stock market isn't as dangerous as it really is. it really is dangerous. if you have an extra $10,000 and you want to buy stocks, but only think of it as a hobby. you're most likely going to lose. it's like poker. a beginner cannot expect to make money against people that do it as a profession (OVER THE LONG RUN). 

for all intesive purposes (lol i mean intents and purposes), the stock market is a zero-sum game. so in order for you to make money, that means someone has to lose the same amount of money. so basically you have to beat professionals in a game of skill, aaaand you have to pay the stock exchange fees for trading. goodluck

and if you hear stories that people made tens of thousands of dollars on Apple, or Google. yeah sure. that happens. but those are the outliers. look at other companies

this could all be complete BS, i dont know. i sound really negative, i dont like it. but maybe it's true?    hmm. here's what i think i want to say. if my friend came up to me and asked me if he should play poker (if he's a beginner), blackjack, or play the stock market.  i would tell him. don't play poker because you're probably going to lose, don't play blackjack because you're probably going to lose. and don't play the stock market because you're probably going to lose. bet on sports!